College Football Lines

2010 College Football Predictions – Arkansas

Arkansas is one of the more popular darkhorse picks to win this season’s national title because of all the offensive fire power it brings back. But if you’re a believer in defense winning championships, you may not be so quick to make Arkansas your sleeper.

Led by quarterback Ryan Mallett, the Razorbacks boasted the No. 1 scoring offense in the SEC last season. However, the defense ranked No. 12 in the SEC in total defense, giving up 401.2 yards per game. The offense will once again be tough to tame, but a defense that has ranked dead last in the SEC the last two years could keep the Razorbacks from a claiming an SEC West title.

Offense: Mallett led the No. 1 passing attack in the SEC last season, one that averaged 295.5 yards per game through the air. With one of the best wide receiver units in the country returning, Arkansas will be ready to air it out again in 2010. Head coach Bobby Petrino wants to be a little more balanced this season. Running the ball more will eat clock, which will help keep his weaker defense off the field.  Mallett threw for 3,624 yards and 30 touchdown strikes with just seven picks in 2009. Returning wide receivers Greg Childs, Joe Adams, Jarius Wright and Cobi Hamilton combined for 2,490 of those yards and 22 of those touchdowns. Childs is the top returning receiver. He caught 48 passes for 894 yards and seven scores a season ago. The Razorbacks lost running back Michael Smith, but Ronnie Wingo Jr., Dennis Johnson, Broderick Green and Knile Davis are all talented backs. They will also benefit from an experienced offensive line which returns four starters.

Defense: If Arkansas is going to win the West, it’s going to need improved play from a defense that allowed 25.1 points per game last year. The Hogs must especially improve their pass defense. They finished last in the SEC in defending the pass, allowing 248.5 yards per game last season. While the Razorbacks’ gambling defense finished No. 2 nationally in turnover margin, it gave up way too many big plays in the process. I have no doubt that this unit will be better this season, but it’s hard to think it will be drastically better. With guys like Jake Bequette, Patrick Jones, Zach Stadther and Tenarius Wright back up front, the Hogs should continue to improve against the run. But the true key to their success will be how well they defend the pass. Key personnel returns in the secondary, but the Razorbacks must be able to mount a better pass rush in order to keep teams from picking them apart through the air.

Prediction: 2nd SEC West – I won’t be at all surprised if Arkansas finds a way to win the West, but I’m giving the early edge to defending national champion Alabama. Bama may have lost a lot of key players on defense, but coach Nick Saban has proven that he can reload. Bama looks to be the better defensive team, and that’s why I’m giving the Tide the edge in the West.  Check out my 2010 SEC football predictions to see how I have the rest of the league playing out.

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